Unstoppable Global Warming

The Facts Behind the 1,500-year Climate Cycle
Authors' Blog by Dr. S. Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Sudden Cooling of World's Oceans Revealed by New Research

The world’s oceans cooled suddenly between 2003 and 2005, losing more than 20 percent of the global warming heat they’d absorbed over the previous 50 years! That’s a vast amount of heat, since the oceans hold 1000 times as heat as the atmosphere. The ocean-cooling researchers say the heat was likely vented into space, since it hasn’t been found stored anywhere on Earth.

John Lyman, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, says the startling news of ocean cooling comes courtesy of the new ARGO ocean temperature floats being distributed worldwide. ARGOs are filling in former blank spots on the world’s ocean monitoring system—and vastly narrowing our past uncertainty about sparsely measured ocean temperatures.

The ARGO floats have even confirmed an earlier sudden cooling of the oceans—from 1980 to 1983. At that time, researchers lacked enough confidence in the sparse marine thermometer set to report that cooling publicly.

Lyman says the discovery of the sudden ocean coolings undercuts faith in the global warming forecasts because coolings randomly interrupt the trends laid out by the global circulation models. As Lyman put it, “the cooling reflects interannual variability that is not well represented by a linear trend.”

The new ocean cooling also recalls several NASA studies in the last five years that found a huge natural heat vent over the Warm Pool of the Pacific. Studies coordinated by Bruce Weilicki, of NASA’s Langley Research Center, found that when sea surface temperatures rise above 28 degrees C, Pacific rainfall becomes more efficient. More of the cloud droplets form raindrops, so fewer are left to form high, icy, cirrus clouds that seal in heat. As a result, the area of cirrus cloud is reduced, and far more heat passes out into space. This cools the surface of the world’s warmest ocean water

Weilicki’s research teams say that the huge natural heat vent emitted about as much heat during the 1980s and 90s as would be expected from a redoubling of the CO2 content in the air. They used satellites to measure cloud cover, and long-range aircraft to monitor sea temperatures.

Weilicki says the heat-vent’s previously unknown changes in the global energy budget were two to four times larger than scientists had previously believed possible. “Several of the world’s top climate modeling research groups agreed to take on the challenge of reproducing the tropical cloud changes. But the climate models failed the test, predicting smaller-than-observed variability by factors of two to four.”

Layman says the sudden ocean coolings particularly complicate the problem of separating natural temperature changes from man-made impacts on the Earth’s temperature. The impact of human-emitted CO2 has been assumed to accumulate in a straight-line trend over many decades.

Meanwhile, since the 1980s, the Earth’s ice cores, seabed sediments and cave stalagmites have been revealing a moderate, natural 1500-year climate cycle linked to solar irradiance. Temperatures jump suddenly and erratically 1-2 degrees C above the mean at the latitude of Washington and New York for centuries at a time, and more than that at the Poles.

Temperatures vary hardly at all at the Equator during the 1500-year cycle and Bruce Weilick’s NASA heat-vent findings seem to indicate why. The Warm Pool of the Pacific acts like a cooking pot, with its “lid” popping open to emit steam when the water gets too hot.

The more we look, the more we learn about the Earth’s complex climate forces—though not much of the new knowledge comes from the huge, unverified global circulation models favored by the man-made warming activists.

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